Now is the time for a severe housing downturn – Send out the alert. A catastrophic housing slump in the United States may be imminent. If you believe the most recent opinion from the credit rating firm Fitch Ratings, that is. To clarify, they really said that “the possibility of a major housing slump in the United States has grown.”
They continue to think that this scenario is improbable and that the housing market will see a more modest decline. Although it might lead to a decrease in property prices, this mostly impacts builders, who are already suffering. As I predicted some time ago, there has recently been a great deal of pessimism in the property market.
Concerning real estate, mortgage rates, and the economy as a whole, we have entered a negative news cycle. In June, economist Mark Zandi of Moody’s, an additional credit rating firm, said that a housing correction was occurring. What he meant by it was that the housing boom had reached its conclusion. In other words, the good times had come to an end.
This was mostly caused by the doubling of mortgage rates, which precipitated an affordability crisis that halted housing price growth. Nonetheless, many market observers anticipate that property values will continue to grow, albeit only slightly. After accounting for inflation, they may be flat or theoretically decrease.
Moreover, some markets will be affected more than others, namely those that have had unsustainable price increases over the previous few years. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said this week that rising building prices had ushered in a “housing slump.”
This results in fewer house starts, price cuts, waning demand from potential homebuyers, and fewer home sales. In conclusion, we have a housing correction, a housing recession, and the impending threat of a real estate catastrophe.
According to a 1,000-person study conducted by ConsumerAffairs, it is baffling that many Americans want a housing collapse. 78% of respondents think the housing market will soon implode, and 63% want it to. If we’re just discussing a housing correction, 80% support one. 27% of respondents prefer a housing correction over a housing collapse.
This would provide a steady decline in housing values, enabling new purchasers to join the market without placing current homeowners at danger of foreclosure. Generation Z want a housing crisis or correction more than any previous generation in order to acquire a property.
36% think that an accident will occur before to 2023, while 49% predict that a crash will occur in 2023. I have long predicted that the real estate market would reach its peak in 2024, based on cycles dating back several hundred years.
However, I, along with other economists such as Zandi, have questioned the likelihood of a severe economic slump, citing the market’s crucial buffers. These include a shortage of housing supply, high-quality mortgages with rock-bottom interest rates (the majority of homeowners have 30-year fixed loans), and a lack of speculation.
Adding the possibility of a housing slump in which house builders cease construction of new homes exacerbates supply restrictions. Consequently, there will be even fewer available houses, which might boost property prices and shield us from a catastrophic housing recession.
Even while I feel that the current housing market is much different from that of 2006-2007, we still need to be on the defensive. For instance, 65% of homeowners would presumably “need to sell” if a recession were to occur. In addition, we are already in a recession.
Assuming that occurred, which I do not believe, the real estate market would likely collapse. The market would be flooded with distressed transactions, including as short sales and foreclosures.
This situation would be quite similar to what occurred in 2008, which precipitated the Great Recession. However, I believe the majority of homeowners can weather the storm better due to their cheap fixed-rate mortgages. Their substantial home equity balances.
Then, homeowners faced decreasing property values, adjustable-rate mortgages resetting to higher rates, a complete absence of home equity, and mortgages that were often underwater. In addition, three-quarters of respondents stated they would purchase a property if the market crashed, reducing the negative risk.
This is why I still think a housing correction, in which house values simply drop down, is more likely. Moreover, if inflation is accounted for, housing prices may not even decline nominally in many areas.
Note that all this dread and hatred is occurring during a usually sluggish period for the home market. And mortgage rates may fall once again. In conclusion, I feel the housing market has recently gotten out of hand and is now regaining equilibrium. This results in fewer bidding battles, the reinstatement of contingencies, and more reasonable asking prices. It does not imply a fire sale or necessarily a bargain on a house.
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